skip to main | skip to sidebar
Global Labour Column
  • HOME
    • ABOUT US
    • GLC ANTHOLOGIES
  • LINKS
    • RECOMMENDED SITES
    • DISCLAIMER
  • AUTHORS
  • GLOBAL BOARD
  • CONTACT
  • GLU
  • ICDD
  • Follow Us on Twitter
  • Monday, December 12, 2016

    Trump and the Losers of Globalisation and Modernisation

    Thomas Greven
    Donald Trump clearly lost the popular vote and will only inhabit the White House because of the anachronistic and undemocratic institution of the Electoral College, once specifically designed to foil populists like him. Contrary to claims that he somehow ‘hijacked’ the Republican Party, I argue that he simply used the traditional Republican playbook to the extreme - dividing the population along racial, ethnic, and religious lines as well as exploiting anti-elite sentiment – to sell economic and social policies that will hurt the majority of Americans. This got him support from right-wing extremists in the Alt-Right movement as well as the white working class – Americans without a college education – and surprisingly also from white working class women, given that he tried very hard to offend all women. This latter group of voters, previously either non-voting or marginally part of the Democratic coalition, was the key group for Trump’s success in the old industrial heartlands now called the rust-belt states. It is necessary to ask why this group supported him.

    Internationally, the current wave of right-wing populism can be read as a revolt of those who consider themselves losers to, or threatened by, socially unregulated globalisation (trade, capital flows, offshoring, and immigration) or cultural modernisation (feminism, political correctness, and ethnic, cultural and sexual diversity). These voters revolt against political elites who have for decades succumbed to a neoliberal consensus of non-regulation (perpetuated by ‘experts’ who failed to anticipate the ensuing economic crises), and who have shown only condescension towards those uncomfortable with these processes. There is simultaneously a left-wing revolt against the economic elites benefitting from the status quo. Both revolts and the hateful and sometimes violent ‘othering’ of, for example, ethnic minorities are here to stay for the foreseeable future, and likely to get worse, because there are currently no political majorities for social regulation of the global economy. Many voters instead favour a re-nationalisation of policy, sometimes ethnically defined.

    In the US, the Democrats are associated with the political elite much more than the Republicans, because the latter adopted a strong anti-elitism since the Gingrich revolution of the 1990s. As a result, first the Tea Party and then Donald Trump were able to topple Republican establishment candidates. Hillary Clinton specifically embodies the out-of-touch elite in Washington DC, and she made matters worse by speaking condescendingly of the ‘deplorables’.

    From the perspective of the white working class, the differences amongst Clinton, Trump and Bernie Sanders are exemplified by their stands on trade policy and offshoring. Clinton, as part of the Obama administration and of the Wall Street-friendly wing of the Democrats, was strongly for free trade until Sanders’ challenge in the primaries forced her to abandon this position. Nobody missed the opportunism. Both Sanders and Trump, in contrast, could credibly claim positions skeptical of free trade and offshoring – the former because of his voting record, the latter because of his outsider status. While Trump had benefitted from neoliberal policies, he freely admitted this as part of what he had to do as a businessman.

    Bernie Sanders embodies the left-wing variant of the popular revolt against the neoliberal consensus. His economic populism worked without attacks on ethnic minorities and a corrupt political class, focusing instead on the super-rich and (big) business that have profited for decades from policies of non-regulation and low taxation. The social democratic left in the Democratic Party around Senator Elizabeth Warren decries Sanders’ failed bid for the nomination, arguing that he would not have fallen into the trap of claiming the moral high ground vis-à-vis Trump, which – in the eyes of the losers of globalisation and modernisation – must have sounded a lot like the condescension they are used to from the likes of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Sanders, they argue, would have won with a focus on social justice, a stance which was simply not credible for Clinton.

    But hindsight is 20-20. When Sanders now offers cooperation to Trump in case the President-elect actually follows through with policies to support the working class, he perhaps shows his non-partisan concern for the betterment of people’s lives, but he also underestimates the level of racism and nativism amongst these Trump voters. And he misreads the Democratic Party, whose economic, trade and social policies are not far removed from the Republican mainstream.

    Since the 1960s, the Democrats’ post-defeat analyses have usually concluded that the country is too conservative for social democratic policies, and the party then either nominated Southern conservatives such as Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, or bet on changing demographics with Barack Obama. The Democratic coalition has been glued together by a hodge-podge of identity policies – something for the Afro-Americans, something for the Latinos, something for the LBGTQ community, and so on - but rests on the remainder of the coalition around the New Deal (which between the 1930s and 1960s made possible the rudimentary U.S. welfare state), specifically unionised workers. 


    This is the base that Trump, like Reagan before him, was able to crack. One reason is that the Democrats, rather than on mobilising this base, have counted on demographic change to turn the US into a society where the sum of minorities is larger than the number of white Americans, making the Republicans a minority party. It was no surprise that Obama invested what little political capital he had in a health care reform which was essentially a Republican policy, once devised to derail Clinton’s reform, instead of changing the balance between capital and labour with a labour law reform facilitating union organising. Stronger unions, as advocates of globalisation’s losers, would have demanded a clearer break from neoliberal dogma – against the interest of the neoliberal establishment in the Democratic Party.

    Now, the Democrats have to decide which way to turn. Trade policy, for example, confronts them with a dilemma. Should they embrace simple protectionism? Or rather strengthen their stand regarding social and environmental regulation of the global economy? Since the early 1970s, U.S. unions have been much more protectionist than most of their counterparts in the industrialised world. Now it seems that they will get from Trump what the Democrats and the Republican establishments have always refused them: the end of free trade. Should they rejoice? The size of manufacturing workers’ unions is declining steadily and for many U.S. unions, trade policy is not particularly important anymore. But an economic crisis caused by protectionism, isolationism, and beggar-thy-neighbour policies would hit everybody. Perhaps President Trump will be able to shock U.S. trading partners and businesses to invest more in manufacturing jobs in the U.S., or to incentivise them with taxpayers’ money. What is clear is that unions, their members and the majority of U.S. workers and their families will suffer from most of Trump’s economic and social policies, which will follow the traditional Republican dogma of small government and low taxes.

    At this point, it looks as though the neoliberal consensus has been broken by the Republican Party rather than by the Democrats. Trump is orchestrating the backlash against free trade: perhaps he will not just derail TPP (the Trans Pacific Partnership) and TTIP (the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership) but also re-negotiate existing trade agreements such as NAFTA (the North American Free Trade Agreement). Perhaps he will even implement infrastructure projects to create jobs. And perhaps he will respect the ‘pragmatic liberalism’ of Americans and leave existing social programs intact (even though House speaker Paul Ryan has different ideas). However the expectations of globalisation’s losers are largely contradictory to the Republican mainstream’s, and especially to the preferences of the Party’s business wing. This will put the Republican coalition under immense pressure, and might open opportunities for a largely unchanged Democratic party acting as a loyal opposition committed to the status quo. Picking up Republican moderates and internationally oriented business may allow the Democrats to stay the neoliberal course.

    The international context of a wave of right-wing populism will surely further complicate matters. Policies of social and ecological regulation of globalisation and global justice remain of utmost importance, but the real political battleground has shifted towards a defense of liberal democracy and plural society. In North America and Europe, struggles to keep populists and post-factual politics at bay will mostly be national. Unions might find themselves ambivalent to right-wing populist governments which appear to meet some of their demands. As mentioned above, U.S. industrial unions might welcome parts of Trump’s foreign economic policy. In Europe, the authoritarian governments of Poland and Hungary and the National Front’s campaign in France have been catering to people’s and unions’ desire for social safety. Defense against authoritarian and anti-pluralist forces is made difficult by beggar-thy-neighbour policies such as the British threat to lower corporate taxes after a hard Brexit, and by the opportunism of conservative political and economic elites. Internationally, the best that may be possible at this point might be international agreements, formal or informal, that promise not to competitively lower corporate taxes and labour and other standards.


    Download this article as pdf

    Thomas Greven is an educator, writer, and labour union consultant. He teaches at the John F. Kennedy Institute for North American Studies at FU Berlin, and currently lives in Berlin and Dakar, Senegal.  

    Posted in: Free Trade,Globalisation,Labour Movement,Neoliberalism,Social Democracy,Trade Unions,United States
    Email This BlogThis! Share to Twitter Share to Facebook
    Newer Post Older Post Home

    0 Comments:

    Post a Comment

    Share

    Twitter Facebook Stumbleupon Favorites More

    Subscribe to the Mailing List

    If you want to subscribe to the GLC mailing list, please click here or send an empty email to "List-GLColumn-subscribe@global-labour-university.org"

    Contribute to the GLC

    If you want to contribute to the Global Labour Column, please read here the Guidelines for Contributions

    Languages






    Donations

    More Info

    Popular Posts

      T-Shirt Economics: Labour in the Imperialist World Economy
      Ruskin, the trade union college, is under siege
      Chinese Construction Companies in Africa: A Challenge for Trade Unions

    TAGS

    Trade Unions Financial Crisis Workers' rights Globalisation Neoliberalism Labour Market Collective Bargaining Decent Work Inequality Labour Standards Wage Social Movements Europe Development Strategies Struggle Labour Progressive alliances Labour rights Strike Growth Financial Market Tax Financial Regulation Social Democracy Social Security Public Investment South Africa Economic Democracy Fiscal Space Germany Informal Economy Corporate Governance Freedom of Association Human Rights ILO Minimum Wage Unemployment United States Austerity Competitiveness Greece Labour Movements Trade Union Brexit Central Bank Employment Environment France Free Trade Free Trade Agreement Labour Movement Labour Statistics Migration Social Protection Solidarity State Funding Transnational Solidarity Vietnam Workers’ Rights Brazil Crisis Crowd Work Domestic Workers Economic Alternatives Economic Crisis Education Forced Labour Global Warming Labour Market Flexibility National Minimum Wage Nationalism Occupational Health Organising Public Works Programmes Regulation Supply Chains Trade Union Divisions Workers' unity Agriculture Care Work Climate Change Construction Sector Cooperatives Democracy Economic Reform Elections Farmworkers Financialisation Gig economy Globalization Indonesia Just Transition Labour Process Labour Reform Liberalisation Macroeconomic Policy NUM Outsourcing Portugal Precariousness Privatisation Protests Refugees Reserve Army of Labour Right to strike Sex Work Social Dialogue Social Justice Tax Evasion Welfare State Women Workers Workers Rights Workers’ Organisations AI AMCU Academic Labour Africa Algorithms Alliances Alternative Sources of Power Anti-privatisation Anti-union Violence Automobiles Banking Bolivia Brazilian Institutions Britain Business and Human Rights Canada Capital Flight Capitalism Cavite EPZ Chinese Investment Climate Jobs Collectivity Colombia Community Monitoring Conference Corporate Accountability Corporate Responsibility Corporate Transparency Coup Cuba Data Debt Restructuring Decriminalisation Demand Developed and Developing Countries Development Digital Imperialism Digital labour Digitisation Disciplining of the superfluous labour force Domestic Work Drug Dealing E-commerce Economic Development Economy Egypt Entrepreneurship Ergonomics Eurozone Crisis Executive Compensation Export Processing Zones Factory Occupations Fair Trade Farm Workers Feminism Fertility Markets Finance Financial Crises Financial Innovation Financial crisis. Fiscal Austerity Food Sovereignty Future of work G20 Gender Gentrification German Social Democratic Party Global Health Global Multiplier Grassroots Organising Great Depression Great Recession Hawkers Health Hong Kong Hotel Housekeepers Housing Human Rights due Diligence Immigrants India Industrial Impact Industrial Relations Informal Employment Informality Institutions International Aid Policy International Framework Agreements Investment Partnership (TTIP) Investment Partnerships Iran Israel Korean Shipbuilding Industry Kuznets Labor Labour Broking Labour Income Share Labour Law Labour Markets Labour Party Labour Relations Leadership Left Legislation Loi Travail Macroeconomic Performance Management Manufacturing Marshall Plan Metal Workers Migrant Domestic Workers Militarised Capitalism Mineworkers Morales NASVI National Health Service Neolibaralism Networking New Progressive Consensus Online Campaigning Options for the Euro Area Paternalism Patriarchy Pension Reform Pensions Performance Standards Political Alliances Poverty Reduction Precarity Prison Labour Prisoners Private Plantations Progressive Tax Reform Protectionism Public Policy Quebec Racism Rank-and-File Member Redistribution Regulation of Labour Renewables Rent Seeking Reproductive Labour Resistance Rural Development Ruskin SEWA Securitization Shadow Banking Shaft Stewards Social Audit Social Development Social Movement Social Transformation Solidarity Economy Spain Sportswear Industry State Stellenbosch Street Trading Street Vendors Strike Ban Strikes Structural Changes Surrogacy Swedish Model Syriza Technology Tenants' Union Tertiary Education Top Income Shares Tourism Trade Liberalisation Trade Misinvoicing Transatlantic Trade Transformation Transnational Unionism Transparency Transport Trump Tunsia Turkey Unfree Labour Union Union 4.0 Union Strategy Unions Unite the Union Universal Health Coverage (UHC) Voluntary Initiatives Wage Employment Wage Inequality Wage Share West Africa Wild Cat Strike Winelands Women Women’s Movement Work Schedules Work and Family Workers` Organization World Economic Forum Youth

    PUBLICATIONS

    Click here to view more

    Blog Archive

    • ►  2019 (10)
      • ►  December (1)
      • ►  November (2)
      • ►  October (3)
      • ►  September (1)
      • ►  August (2)
      • ►  April (1)
    • ►  2018 (18)
      • ►  December (1)
      • ►  November (1)
      • ►  October (1)
      • ►  July (1)
      • ►  June (2)
      • ►  May (2)
      • ►  April (4)
      • ►  March (2)
      • ►  February (3)
      • ►  January (1)
    • ►  2017 (40)
      • ►  December (4)
      • ►  November (2)
      • ►  October (3)
      • ►  September (5)
      • ►  July (4)
      • ►  June (6)
      • ►  May (4)
      • ►  April (3)
      • ►  March (2)
      • ►  February (4)
      • ►  January (3)
    • ▼  2016 (34)
      • ▼  December (3)
        • Reflecting on electoral catastrophe: What lessons ...
        • Trump and the Losers of Globalisation and Modernis...
        • The global economic slowdown
      • ►  November (2)
      • ►  October (2)
      • ►  September (4)
      • ►  August (4)
      • ►  July (2)
      • ►  June (3)
      • ►  May (4)
      • ►  April (1)
      • ►  March (4)
      • ►  February (3)
      • ►  January (2)
    • ►  2015 (32)
      • ►  December (2)
      • ►  November (5)
      • ►  October (4)
      • ►  September (2)
      • ►  August (1)
      • ►  July (2)
      • ►  June (5)
      • ►  May (3)
      • ►  April (2)
      • ►  March (2)
      • ►  February (3)
      • ►  January (1)
    • ►  2014 (32)
      • ►  December (3)
      • ►  November (1)
      • ►  October (4)
      • ►  September (3)
      • ►  August (1)
      • ►  July (3)
      • ►  June (6)
      • ►  May (2)
      • ►  April (3)
      • ►  March (2)
      • ►  February (2)
      • ►  January (2)
    • ►  2013 (41)
      • ►  December (3)
      • ►  November (2)
      • ►  October (5)
      • ►  September (4)
      • ►  August (1)
      • ►  July (4)
      • ►  June (3)
      • ►  May (4)
      • ►  April (3)
      • ►  March (4)
      • ►  February (4)
      • ►  January (4)
    • ►  2012 (35)
      • ►  December (3)
      • ►  November (4)
      • ►  October (4)
      • ►  September (2)
      • ►  August (2)
      • ►  July (2)
      • ►  June (2)
      • ►  May (4)
      • ►  April (3)
      • ►  March (3)
      • ►  February (4)
      • ►  January (2)
    • ►  2011 (39)
      • ►  December (3)
      • ►  November (4)
      • ►  October (3)
      • ►  September (4)
      • ►  August (3)
      • ►  July (2)
      • ►  June (3)
      • ►  May (3)
      • ►  April (4)
      • ►  March (4)
      • ►  February (4)
      • ►  January (2)
    • ►  2010 (39)
      • ►  December (3)
      • ►  November (5)
      • ►  October (4)
      • ►  September (2)
      • ►  August (2)
      • ►  July (3)
      • ►  June (4)
      • ►  May (1)
      • ►  April (4)
      • ►  March (4)
      • ►  February (4)
      • ►  January (3)
    • ►  2009 (5)
      • ►  December (3)
      • ►  November (2)

     
    Copyright © 2011 Global Labour Column | Powered by Blogger
    Design by Free WordPress Themes | Bloggerized by Lasantha - Premium Blogger Themes | 100 WP Themes