The end of an era: What comes after financialisation and what will be the consequences for labour?

Ekkehard Ernst

The global financial crisis that started in 2007 is marking the end of an era. This era has been characterised by deepening financial markets, a growth process driven by the accumulation of household debt and the international financial dominance of the North. The disruption of financial markets and the shake-up of the world trading system, however, are likely to undermine this economic model permanently. As a result of the crisis, new regulation may be introduced, political and economic power is likely to shift from North to South and new actors will be entering the scene. Most importantly, the legitimacy of earlier policy prescriptions which have led to a rising trend in social inequality has been significantly undermined. Will this ring the bell of a new high era for labour as during the Fordist period? Or, in contrast, will distributional battles stiffen? What will be the new sources of growth and who might benefit from them most? The jury is still open as we are in the middle of the battle storm, but some new trends are already emerging that will shape the future ground for global governance.

New challenges for labour as growth prospects fade away

Cédric Durand

With the current crisis, economies and societies are entering a period of institutional shake up which occurs in initial conditions that are much more disadvantageous to labour than during the crisis of the 1970s. At the same time, a paradigm shift is emerging as growth prospects are fading away in advanced economies. The onset of this dispensation poses serious challenges to the labour movement and progressive political economists; this article attempts to address them and to stimulate debate.

The great contemporary crisis takes place in an environment which is radically different from the great profitability crisis of the 1970s. On the one hand, the post-world war period had allowed labour to build a strong bargaining power position. On the contrary, since the 1980s, neoliberal policies have successfully weakened its position. The combined disciplinary effects of a growing reserve army of labour, new managerial principles of controlled autonomy reinforced by IT, increasingly heterogeneous employment norms, spatial splintering of production and an increased exposure to multidimensional competitive pressures have sapped labour combativeness. Rising inequalities in favour of a thin layer of super rich and the dramatic decrease in the number of strikes are symptomatic of the retreat of labour in rich countries.

Global Financial Crisis 2.0

Raymond Torres

Recovery prospects are being seriously hampered as a result of risk of a return to pre-crisis policy settings. By the end of 2009, the world economy was slowly recovering, aided by stimulus measures implemented by governments since the onset of the crisis. However, recent pressures for a return to orthodox policies in the context of an unreformed financial system threaten these fragile achievements.

Fiscal stimulus measures helped put a floor on the global crisis…

The crisis led to a significant policy response by governments and monetary authorities. In advanced countries, interest rates were drastically reduced and have been maintained at a low level. Massive rescue packages to avoid a collapse of financial institutions were implemented – mainly in developed countries. And most countries that had a budget space implemented fiscal stimulus measures in the form of discretionary tax cuts, higher government spending or a combination of both. These fiscal measures were crucial to revive the economy given the weakness of monetary policy tools in a context of “deleveraging” in the private sector and among financial institutions. According to ILO estimates, the fiscal stimulus measures amounted to around 1.7% of world GDP.(1)

Putting employment security first will diminish demand - a warning from Germany

Heiner Flassbeck

The current global recession and fear of increasing redundancies has shifted the emphasis of the German labour movement from one concerning pay claims to employment security. Employment security has become the name of the game. Even the metalworker’s union IG Metall is openly putting employment security before pay claims in their demands. So wage rises and hour cuts can be foregone, so long as not too many heads roll in the workplace.

I would like to argue that this emphasis is a serious mistake and that employment security achieved through wage restraint is likely to have negative effects across the economy and retard Germany’s exit from the recession. While wage restraint may preserve jobs within a firm, this has knock-on effects that will only serve to deepen the recession through their impact on demand. The current crisis brings into stark relief the failure of unions in Germany to examine seriously the impact of working-time reduction and the associated wage reduction, or lesser wage increases, on demand in the economy as a whole.