Ronald Janssen
“Bashing the Greeks” has become a very popular sport these days. The main thought on the minds of the financial markets as well as a lot of politicians in Europe is that Greece has only itself to blame for the trouble it is in. After entering monetary union by rigging the statistics, it is argued, Greece went on a huge “spending binge”, making public finances unsustainable. This is now even threatening to undermine the financial stability of European monetary union as such. The more “moderate” version of this sort of thinking suggests that Greece should take its medicine and drastically cut all government expenditure and all wages (in both the public and the private sector). The less “moderate” version simply says that Greece should never have been allowed to join the monetary union in the first place and should now be thrown out of it.

Neva Makgetla

South Africa has been harshly affected by the international economic crisis, which led to a fall in the GDP and an even sharper contraction in employment. While job losses levelled out in the last quarter of 2009, the crisis will continue to shape long-run development. In particular, it points to the need for a development strategy that builds more on domestic and regional demand and that focuses explicitly on employment creation as central to a cohesive and equitable society.

South Africa’s GDP declined by approximately 3% between the last quarter of 2008 and the second quarter of 2009, and then increased in the third quarter of 2009. In comparison, the fall in employment proved steeper and more prolonged. The economy lost around a million jobs, or 6%, between the fourth quarter of 2008 and the third quarter of 2009, and gained only 90 000 back in the last quarter of 2009.

Bob Kyloh

The global economic crisis that commenced in 2008 has had devastating effects across rich and poor nations. But the impact on growth, employment and incomes has not been uniform across countries. Economic performance has depended critically on the policy response adopted by governments. Other authors writing for this Column have made a convincing case for an income led growth strategy in response to the recession. At least one country has clearly demonstrated the benefits of this approach.

Australia is often referred to as the “lucky country”. The recent economic performance of this resource rich nation has helped reinforce this notion. Indeed recent economic achievements down-under may be partly due to the good fortune of rebounding commodity prices and expanding Asian markets. But the terms of trade actually moved against Australia in the last eighteen months and net exports detracted significantly from economic growth in 2009. Economic recovery is actually the result of public policies that boosted the disposable incomes of low and middle income families when aggregate demand was plummeting.

(by Andrew Jackson)

As the communiqué from the Pittsburgh G20 summit put it, “it worked”. Unprecedented macro-economic stimulus in the form of ultra low interest rates and large government deficits has pulled the global economy back from the abyss, at least for now. But what comes next? Conventional economic wisdom is setting the stage for deep and damaging cuts to public expenditures if labour and the progressive left do not win the argument for public investment led growth and increased fiscal capacity.

Now is definitely not the time for a quick return to budget balance. Not only is the recovery very fragile, interest rates are likely to remain low. This means we can finance public expenditures which create jobs now while raising our productive potential and the future tax base. Debt incurred today to create a larger economy tomorrow is no burden on future generations.